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月度归档五月 2020

扶贫工作相关网络舆情监测风险提示报告

数据说明:

图表数据来源:互联网公开数据

数据来源包括:新闻网站、论坛/贴吧、微博、微信、手机客户端等

数据时间范围:2020 年 5 月 17 日 21 时—2020 年 5 月 20 日 15 时

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一、舆情概述

5 月 18 日,国新办召开新闻发布会,介绍确保如期完成脱贫攻坚目标任务有关情况。国务院扶贫办主任刘永富对“疫情会否导致脱贫人口返贫问题”作出回应,其表示监测发现只有少量返贫,这些返贫不完全是因为疫情,有的是因为其他灾害和因病返贫。根据监测,容易返贫的和边缘户容易致贫两类人在今年增加了 38 万,已纳入监测和帮扶机制。

据介绍,相关部门已对脱贫不稳定户、边缘易致贫户以及因疫情或其他原因收入骤减或支出骤增户加强监测,提前采取针对性的帮扶措施,如技能培训、扶贫公益岗位等扶贫政策支持、强化低保、医疗、养老保险等综合性保障措施。

据智慧星光舆情秘书 CII 数据监测,监测时间段内关于“扶贫办:容易返贫、致贫人口今年增加 38 万”事件的信息传播量共 1877 条,其中中性信息 1401 条,正面信息 476 条,暂无负面信息。但监测时间内涉及“脱贫”关键词的信息传播量高达 36 余万条,可见“脱贫攻坚”仍是政府、公众及媒体多方关注重点。

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二、数据分析

1、舆情走势

根据上图可见,本次“扶贫办:容易返贫、致贫人口今年增

  • 38 万”事件于 5 月 18 日 16 时达到传播峰值,主要与媒体报道有关。随后,舆情呈波动下降态势。

2、舆情调性

监测时间段内,本次事件舆情调性以中性及正面为主,中性

信息占比约为 74.64%,正面信息占比 25.36%,暂无负面信息。

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3、媒体占比

从上图可见,该事件舆情信息主要集中在新闻、手机客户端(APP)、微信这三个传播平台。其中,新闻信息量占比 69.69%,成为此次事件的主要传播平台。

三、媒体及网民观点

1、媒体观点

该事件报道后引发了大量媒体关注,相关报道主要集中于

道“国务院扶贫办回应”各地多措巩固脱贫成果两方面,如

国网《脱贫人口因疫情出现返贫?国务院扶贫办回应》、环球网

《扶贫办:容易返贫、致贫人口今年增加 38 万》、新华网《脱

贫攻坚倒计时 “决战”重拳频出》、央广网《新疆:建立贫困

监测预警机制 精准施策“助脱贫、防返贫”》、山西晚报《山

西多举措巩固脱贫成果防止返贫致贫》、陕西扶贫办《陕西:抢

抓农时加快果业转型升级 壮大产业助力贫困户脱贫不返贫》等。

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除此之外,人民论坛网也发表网评《“三坚持”巩固脱贫成

果》,指出在脱贫攻坚工作最关键时刻,需要我们聚焦基层人才

引育、产业开发、生态保护等方面精准发力,坚定信心,攻坚克

难完成任务、巩固成果。中国纪检监察报也在《脱贫灌浆期更需

精耕细作》报道中也指出,脱贫攻坚进入收官阶段,遭遇新冠肺

炎疫情严峻挑战,正如小麦“灌浆期”突遇寒潮,尤其需要咬紧

牙关、精耕细作,把工作做得更细一些、实一些。

2、网民观点

本次事件在新浪微博上形成#采取措施对 38 万返贫人口进行弥补#话题,阅读量 36.2 万,讨论量 32 条;而微博上关于“脱贫”相关话题则较多,如#脱贫攻坚#、#脱贫攻坚战星光行动#、

#脱贫大决战#、#2019 年申请的 344 个贫困县全部脱贫摘帽#、#安徽省贫困县全部脱贫#、#中国已有 9300 万贫困人口实现脱贫#等等,阅读量高达 76 亿,讨论量共计四千余万条。

网民观点主要集中于以下几点,一是点赞脱贫攻坚,希望国家越来越好,也有受益人表示自己所在乡村切实能够感受到扶贫的政策;二是质疑家乡是否在推进脱贫工作,表示存在扶贫对象识别不精准等问题,认为脱贫只是假象;三是对脱贫工作提出期望,如常态化、制度化、谨防强制脱贫、因地制宜扶贫等方面;四是认为贫苦地区确实得到了帮扶,但同时也表示贫富差距大,民生仍较为艰难。此外,还有部分“抹黑”声音,表示自己“被”

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脱贫,但随后便有理性网民予以科普贫困标准。现例举部分网民

观点如下:

@恋爱交友:国家一直在努力!

@司马平邦:半年 38 万人返贫,看来精准扶贫要制度化常态

化。

@嘉平 zoyi:今天听了一会早间新闻,各地都在脱贫攻坚,怎么我一个在农村的人却没有感觉到我们这儿脱贫攻坚的脚步呢,难道上级领导都在闷声发大财,悄摸摸脱贫?

@记得喝豆奶呦:说你脱贫你就脱贫,没脱也得硬脱

@Mr_崴猛先生:其实扶的不是贫,而是志。政府能根据每个贫困县因地制宜,更多的是教给百姓如何致富的方法

@早睡这么难吗:有些时候扶贫要找对方法,不可否认有部分恶民就想着靠这个国家摘贫就啥也不干

@张不溜啾:扶贫干部是真的不容易

@啦啦啦哇 123:我们村好多事情不透明化,建档立卡在村民不知道的情况下,党员们自己都弄上了,一个村名都没有,都是党员办上了,真是不知道基层什么时候可以真正的落实这些对百姓有好处的事情

@万事尽头终有美好:其实,我觉得有些地区还可以,但是有些地区真的不行,希望国家多派一些大学生干部来到基层。有些农村地方的领导六七十岁,真的没有一点创新活力,还非常贪 @123 飘来飘去 123:真心希望他们脱贫,是没有水分的脱贫!

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不是为了政绩的假脱贫!

@阿呆与阿发:山西省阳泉市盂县,好多村子连自来水都没

有!我发了微博没有官方回应!政府是干什么的?

@一个人飘不过了:能感觉到周边的变化。我们这城市下边

的几个贫困县也脱贫了,现在变得好多了。

四、脱贫攻坚现存问题

1、疫情影响增加脱贫难度

疫情影响之下的减产减收提升了脱贫攻坚的难度,其影响主

要在两方面,首先农产品的主要销售场所农贸市场、超市、商店

等疫情之下流量骤减和物流渠道变窄,部分地区蔬菜、水果等农

产品出现严重滞销问题;其次疫情的溯源研究使公众开始强烈关

注野生动物的食用安全性,更甚之“禁野令”的一刀切使得部分

养殖户进退两难,人工养殖产业也受到公众强烈关注度溢出的影

响而销售量大减,这对已脱贫、未脱贫地区都产生了较大冲击。

2、直播带货走样产生多种风险

针对部分农产品出现阶段性“卖难”问题,各地相继采取措施以求打通制约消费的难点、堵点,其中公众关注度最高的便是“官员直播带货”。这种方式以公权机关的公信、权威作为担保,连结各社交平台的地气和庞大流量,提升了当地产品的曝光度和知名度。原本该举措对刺激消费具有积极意义,但是与扶贫攻坚工作结合后这二者巨大的话题性使其弊端和实行中的问题暴露

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在了公众的视野当中。陕西省城固县的“强制带货”、“摊派式”做法是反映出官员直播带货问题的典型案例:首先领导干部“带货”以官员的个人出面作为基础,用个人形象代言所属地方政府,有滋生个人权威主义风险;其次,领导干部直播带货没有明晰的执行程序和严格的监管方式,如何选择帮销商品、验明销量真实可信、确认商家切实收到相应的款项都成为了新的问题,程序和监管的暂时缺失让这片新兴的灰色领域滋生了私人帮销的腐败风险;再次官员带货不属于常规的政务工作,下指标、摊任务之类的推进方式容易流于形式主义,成为了服务官员个人政绩、干部间政绩攀比的面子功夫,却忽视了带货的根本目的在于脱贫帮销;最后有部分领导无法对发货、邮寄、售后等流程实现全覆盖,以至于产品质量堪忧、消费者消费体验差,这不仅有损政府公信力,还影响当地产品形象,在提高了知名度和民众的心理预期值后形成了巨大的反差。

直播带货是一种利用互联网的有力宣传形式,有助于实现“造血式”扶贫,但部分官员的不当行为极易引发脱贫新问题,使得“电商扶贫”措施走样,脱贫效果大打折扣。

3、伪公益视频扩大公众心理疑虑

综合目前网络上舆论反馈来看,部分网民对脱贫攻坚情绪较为悲观,信心不足。在该情绪的影响下,这部分网民对涉及贫困、脱贫等新闻或视频,第一反应便是质疑公权力机关,这种心理的

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传播对脱贫攻坚的收官之战产生了不良影响。此外,短视频平台

当中扶助贫困老人的视频数量渐增,但视频中部分老人生活环境

却与大力展开的脱贫工作形成鲜明对比,这一定程度上加剧了公

众对扶贫力度的质疑。

值得注意的是,该类视频中既包括热衷公益的热心人士,也

包括设计剧本、假借贫困名义收割流量的自媒体。过度夸张贫困

老人的生活现状,不仅是公众对扶贫工作产生误解的来源之一,

更是对扶贫工作的“扯后腿”行为。

4、收官时限暴露前期工作不足

2020 年是脱贫攻坚决战决胜之年,总体扶贫计划的时间表

临近结束,暴露了部分地区前期脱贫工作的不力。首先,深度贫

困户的脱贫状况需要再次进行考察评估,收官阶段仍未脱贫的贫

困户存在着前期贫困户认定程序出错、脱贫措施不完善、收效不

高的问题;其次,各地存在的返贫户则存在扶贫措施不完善导致

的因病、因残等情况,也存在扶贫措施不彻底导致脱贫观念不深

入的返贫情况。

五、舆情总结

2020 年不仅是脱贫攻坚战的全面收官之年,也是决战完成

脱贫任务、实现脱贫目标的最后一年,更是会在年底对脱贫任务

的完成情况和目标实现程度进行考核,“脱贫攻坚”也不可避免

地成为地方两会高频词。同时,打赢脱贫攻坚战是党对全国人民

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的庄严承诺,势必受到多方人士关注。

“其作始也简,其将毕也必巨”,更重要的是,在此关键时

刻遭遇传播速度快、感染范围广、防控难度大的新冠肺炎疫情,

两种困难的叠加,更是增加了工作难度,同时也带来一些舆情风

险点,关系着脱贫之路是否能走得“稳”、“长”、“佳”。

一是“输血式”扶贫无法解决贫困村实际问题。在绩效考核

压力下,是否会有领导干部采取给钱、给种苗、强制拆房等方法

来帮扶贫困地区脱贫,这一问题值得引起关注。该方法不仅无法

解决实际贫困问题,更是容易让贫困户形成惯性思维,而强制脱

贫也是十分有损政府名声,为有心人士否认脱贫攻坚成效提供把

柄。通过给钱给物措施,虽然能在短时间实现脱贫目的,但脱贫

根基却是十分不牢固,带有较大的返贫风险。

二是“扶过就走”有较大返贫可能,有损政府形象。“扶贫

先扶智”是习总书记新时期对坚决打好、打赢脱贫攻坚战的新论

断之一。教育是贫困脱贫的重要手段之一,但其是一个见效慢、

耗时久的工程,相关部门要谨防脱贫攻坚战一结束、教育扶贫紧

跟结束的情况发生。此外,易地搬迁制度虽是应对“一方水土养

不活一方人”问题的良策,但后续群众就业和生计也是关键问题,

相关部门应重视后续扶持工作,做好后半篇文章。

“扶过就走”的现象一方面使扶贫攻坚成为了消耗巨大但是

作用短暂的面子工程,后续措施的缺失会给政府的公信力和形象

会带来严重的打击,整个工作当中巨量的人力物力消耗也得不到

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相应的效果。另一方面没有解决贫困户思想上的根源问题,因为

脱贫意愿低而造成的再次返贫风险大大提高,这与整个扶贫攻坚

战略的初衷是相违背的。

三是发达地区的定点扶贫承诺能否按时落地。对于发达地区

而言,在受到新冠肺炎疫情对经济的冲击后,先前对帮扶地区的

承诺能否按时完成、如何实现自身和帮扶地区共同发展、减少疫

情负面影响等问题值得发达地区重视。若自身能力和帮扶力度有

一方失衡,都容易引发舆论战,将当地政府推至舆论风口,相关

地区对此需提前做好情况摸排。

总体来说,虽然当下我国脱贫攻坚任务仍然较为艰巨,但各

地政府纷纷迎难而上,多措强化脱贫成效,而舆论场上除了质疑

声,也有少部分受益村民发声,更是侧面佐证了我国脱贫攻坚相

关工作的稳步推进。在这关键时刻,各地政府更应绷紧“稳定脱

贫”这根弦,有效规避舆情风险,按时按量按质交出一份满分答

卷。

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利用先进的大数据能力,对过往热点事件进行分析,基于热点传播模型,预测即将成为热点的新闻线索,并及时推送给节目组进行新闻采编。

融媒体指挥大屏
落地融媒体方案,支持业务指挥所需要的重点内容展现、具备多样化的可视化展示形式,配合软硬件达成一站式整体解决方案,便于各层级管理人员更直观了解信息。

协同搭建媒资库
基于大数据能力和百度强大的云存储能力,汇集与生产对象相关的互联网公开信息,整合数据资产,为后续大数据运营提供基础支撑。

方案优势

独家海量数据
覆盖全网数据,支持自定义站点信息有限获取,扩充目标领域站点信息

炫酷的可视化展示
汇聚各类数据源头,依靠专业的大屏可视化工具,呈现酷炫的展现效果,提升用户视觉体验,支持自定义

多样化的云方案
支持私有化、公有云、混合云等灵活架构方案,适配各类需求

灵活的落地方案
深耕行业和用户需求,结合媒体实际业务场景,支持解决方案有效落地

客户案例

某省级电视台
量身定制打造融媒体指挥大屏,提供从互联网内容采集、舆情信息加工、API接口调用,到可视化大屏的一整套解决方案,将有价值的舆情线索会与媒资库打通,汇总数据追踪传播效果。

某新闻网站
通过持续性的大数据实时分析,形成报社稿件在各种渠道中的版权跟踪;结合采编生产数据,实现传播影响力分析;结合对同业媒体的稿件传播分析,形成同业传播影响力比较,助力业务转型升级。

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